Our 7 Boldest Emmy Awards Predictions
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by Josh Rosenberg
The 2026 Emmy Awards take place on a Monday night this year, at 8:00 p.m. ET on September 14 via NBC/Peacock. Though I won’t win a golden statuette, I’d like to thank the Academy for giving entertainment journalists our Sundays back.
The Emmys also made predicting who might win a little easier. Over the weekend, the Academy gave out a total of 102 early awards for directing, writing, makeup, costuming, and many other craft categories. The major acting awards remain up for debate until Monday night’s broadcast.
The big winners so far? Widow’s Bay, the risky Apple TV series starring Matthew Rhys, who plays the mayor of a cursed New England town. It blew us away this summer thanks to its unique blend of comedy and horror. DTF St. Louis also triumphed early with six Emmys already. The HBO dark comedy about a love triangle starring Jason Bateman, Linda Cardellini, and David Harbour feels like a lock for Outstanding Limited Series. But I’m getting ahead of myself.
Below, I’ve broken down what I believe will be the seven biggest stories of the night come Emmy Monday.
Widow’s Bay Dominates
Horror and comedy aren’t easy TV genres to write, let alone combine. Widow’s Bay proved that it was up to the task this summer, and it looks like the Emmys voters agree that it should walk away as Monday night’s biggest winner. Already, Widow’s Bay is leading the race with eight wins for guest acting (Betty Gilpin), casting, cinematography, production design, and several music and sound categories. I expect that dominance to continue with wins for Outstanding Comedy Series, Lead Actor (Matthew Rhys), and especially Supporting Actress (Kate O’Flynn).
Noah Wyle and The Pitt Go Back-to-Back
As much as I loved Pluribus, I’d be surprised to see the Apple TV comedy-drama beat out The Pitt season 2 for Outstanding Drama Series. There has been so much love for the HBO medical drama over the past two years, and season 2 continued the show’s impeccable track record. There’s always the chance for overexposure. We may have poured so much praise onto Wyle and The Pitt that we’re ready to move on and champion another promising new series like Pluribus on Monday night, but I have the feeling that we’re just not there so soon yet.
Rhea Seehorn Sees Gold
Pluribus may have been created just for Rhea Seehorn to finally win an Emmy, and I’m fine with that! The Apple TV series about a woman who finds herself one of the last surviving humans on Earth following a global pandemic might be a bit too strange (and timely) for the wide Emmy voting body to award it Outstanding Drama, but it’s damn near impossible not to recognize Seehorn here. Still, she’s up against heavy competitors in Carrie Coon (The Gilded Age), Keri Russell (The Diplomat), Chase Infiniti (The Testaments), and Zendaya (Euphoria).
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Rhea Seehorn in Pluribus / photo by: Apple TV
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Matthew Rhys’s Big Night
I’ve already mentioned my prediction that Rhys will take Outstanding Lead Actor (Comedy) for Widow’s Bay. Why stop there? The actor is also nominated in Lead Actor (Limited Series) for his role in Netflix’s crime thriller The Beast in Me. He could win both. His strongest competition in Lead Actor (Comedy) is Steve Carell for Rooster. Meanwhile, he’s up against Charlie Hunnam (Monster), Oscar Isaac (Beef), Jason Bateman (Black Rabbit), and Riz Ahmed (Bait) in Limited Series—a category that has been largely dominated by DTF. St Louis so far.
DTF St. Louis Is Down To Win
Speaking of DTF. St Louis, it looks like the winner of Outstanding Limited Series is already decided. The HBO comedy-drama took home six Emmys over the weekend—the second-most for a scripted series this year so far behind Widow’s Bay. Creator Steven Conrad won for Outstanding Writing and Directing. David Harbour beat out his co-stars Jason Bateman and Richard Jenkins for Supporting Actor. Linda Cardellini won Outstanding Supporting Actress. Plus, DTF continued its sweep in cinematography, scoring, and picture editing. All that’s left is the big prize.
Hacks Is Over, But This Is Still Jean Smart’s Award
Jean Smart won the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actress (Comedy) for every season of Hacks. I don’t expect that to end on Monday night, especially since she’s up for Hacks’s final season. But now that Hacks is finished, maybe someone else can win next year.
My One Hope? Tom Pelphrey for Task
Task significantly cut its chances for an Emmy when HBO renewed the crime drama for season 2. As a limited series, I thought it would sweep. But against The Pitt? Even a series as good as Task is, well, being put to task. Still, I’d love to see Tom Pelphrey take home the Emmy for Outstanding Supporting Actor (Drama). I wouldn’t be upset at all to see the award go to The Pitt’s Gerran Howell, Patrick Ball, or Shawn Hatosy—who are all nominated in the same category this year—but Pelphrey pulled off a performance with incredible range in Task. Personally, there’s no one else on Monday night whom I’m rooting for more.
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Tom Pelphrey in Task / photo by: HBO
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Follow along with Esquire as we cover the Emmys live on Monday night, and let us know who you want to see win by writing to me at josh.rosenberg@hearst.com.
Before I move on, I just want to give a shout out to an international reader who wrote at length in response to my coverage of Lioness this summer so far. Taylor Sheridan’s CIA drama is reaching new territories in its display of the dangers of American exceptionalism in its third season, and it seems its politics have reached all the way to a viewer in Denmark. They asked: “How should we understand the distinction Lioness draws between American intelligence methods and those of the authoritarian regimes it condemns when the methods themselves increasingly resemble one another?”
I’ve covered Taylor Sheridan’s shows for over three years now. Across Yellowstone, Landman, The Madison, and now Lioness, his politics are a jumbled bag of individual liberty and American freedom. It’s always a battle trying to glean how much he agrees with the characters he writes, or whether he’s giving them certain opinions to point out their contradictions.
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The Continuing Adventures of the Esquire Entertainment Desk
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Kenneth Branagh talked to Anthony Breznican about his new film, Mayday, in a career-spanning interview that also touches on Shakespeare, Thor, Agatha Christie, Christopher Nolan, Frankenstein, and Harry Potter. “In this crazy business, any chance you get to surprise people is a real opportunity,” he says. Read the full interview here.
Adam Scott spoke with Esquire editor in chief Michael Sebastian for the latest episode of What I’ve Learned. The Severance actor is currently filming season 3, but Sebastian did his best to try and pry one good spoiler out of him: Scott reveals that he knows the ending. Watch their conversation here.
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Adam Scott on the latest episode of Esquire's "What I've Learned"
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The Cliff-Hanger's Winners and Losers of the Week
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Winner: Nathan Fielder
The Rehearsal creator and deadpan comedy genius owned the weekend after revealing his next project—a documentary about Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes. The former medical tech giant who was convicted of fraud gave Fielder unparalleled access to her home and family life while making the film, which looks to ask the question, “Who is scamming whom?”
Loser: The Rules of Tennis
I love tennis. I also understand that its scoring system is complicated and that not everyone is as excited as I am to watch the same two people battle for over three hours. That’s why, after bowing out in the first round of the U.S. Open and vomiting on the court, Novak Djokovic is supporting a shorter format with easier-to-follow scoring. He may be right that the sport needs a reinvention, and his proposals are picking up steam a lot more post-vomit than they were pre-vomit.
Winner: Morphin’ Time
Matt Damon will star in The Daniels’ follow-up to Everything Everywhere All at Once, which is described as “basically a Power Rangers movie.” Our resident Ranger Eric Francisco broke down what the hell that could mean here.
Loser: Recording Shakespeare in a Bane Voice
Tom Hardy, don’t quit (or get fired) from your day job. The MobLand actor released a rap album with former Wu-Tang Clan member Inspectah Deck under the alter ego “Frankie Pulitzer.” The record even includes a track of Hardy reciting Richard III using the voice of the Batman villain he played in The Dark Knight Rises. I couldn’t tell you who the audience is for that one.
Winner: Wile E. Coyote
The Looney Tunes character finally won for a change following the release of Coyote vs. Acme, which bested Ridley Scott’s The Dog Stars at the box office this past weekend following a long battle for it to simply premiere in theaters. Hear the full story from director Dave Green in an interview with Esquire here.
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